Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ebb…405a weather 537 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,805 (+7%) realized +$1,776 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%221W / 379L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day72.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$760now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$864
sports 0% −$74
other 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -3.7% -12.8% 30% 29% -25.1%
≤30d 500 +7.6% -2.6% 36% 34% -13.2%
≤90d 600 +4.0% -5.9% 37% 35% -12.0%
all 600 +4.0% -5.9% 37% 35% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 35% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 29% -20.4%
15% -23.1% 25% -28.1%
20% -30.6% 18% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$26 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$760
Realized+$1,776
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses221 / 379
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)600 / 537
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day72.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 600 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? No 74¢ 76¢ $239 $243 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? No 79¢ 78¢ $225 $221 −$4 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Yes 26¢ 99¢ $26 $99 +$73 (+281%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? No 79¢ 89¢ $53 $60 +$7 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $31 $28 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? No 80¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+75%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $18 $1 −$17 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? No 86¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 12? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Pistons vs. Knicks Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 13? Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 12? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 24? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 16? Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-03? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-6.5) Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 25? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on April 23? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5) Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-5.5) Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 12? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 12? Jun 18 $0 −$3 -3736%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-16? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 11? Jun 18 $0 −$3 -1678%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 27? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 12? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-6.5) Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on April Jun 18 $0 −$3 -2329%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-19? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 25? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 12? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 1? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-15? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 13? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Pistons vs. Heat Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 1? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 27? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on Apri Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 15? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 23? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-02-26? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 29? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-19? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Magic vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 46¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 46¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 46¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 48¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $71 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $23 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $759.81 · official $767.03 (match) · 3500 history records