Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

6E 0x6ec3…dc83 crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$25 (+9%) realized +$25 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate48%12W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day14.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-12.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	-3.1%	-12.3%	48%	44%	-4.9%
≤30d	25	-3.1%	-12.3%	48%	44%	-4.9%
≤90d	25	-3.1%	-12.3%	48%	44%	-4.9%
all	25	-3.1%	-12.3%	48%	44%	-4.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.3%	44%	-4.9%
10%	-20.7%	40%	-14.0%
15%	-28.4%	36%	-22.3%
20%	-35.4%	28%	-29.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -21% → late +14% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.13 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$25

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses12 / 13

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)25 / 25

History coverage4d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day14.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 25 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$10	+$27	+266%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$37	−$37	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$24	+$23	+93%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$10	+$14	+140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 24	$9	−$9	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 24	$38	−$14	-36%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 24	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 24	$16	+$7	+46%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 24	$2	−$2	-100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Jun 24	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 24	$6	+$1	+10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 24	$5	+$2	+44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 24	$5	+$6	+114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 24	$7	+$2	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 24	$10	−$5	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 24	$5	+$3	+55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 24	$11	+$3	+25%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 24	$12	+$19	+158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-95%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B	Jun 23	$18	−$1	-7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Jun 23	$11	−$11	-100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$15	+$14	+93%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A	Jun 23	$8	−$8	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	100¢	$37	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	65¢	$37	2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$24	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$4	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	SELL Up	2¢	$0	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	SELL Up	32¢	$14	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$10	2d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$1	2d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$1	2d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$10	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	SELL Down	52¢	$10	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$10	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	SELL Up	75¢	$23	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$10	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	SELL Down	39¢	$7	2d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$1	2d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$5	2d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$1	2d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$1	2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$5	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records