Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ec5…257e sports 409 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 198d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,627 (-3%) realized −$10,480 · open +$853
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate75%302W / 103L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$932per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$185est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$7,696now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$330
7 days+$1,939
14 days+$1,688
30 days+$1,304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% +$3,223
sports 24% +$1,359
world 21% −$13,122
crypto 18% −$1,656
economics 9% +$361
tech 1% +$209
politics 0% +$74
finance 0% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +20.5% +9.0% 80% 73% +8.5%
≤30d 36 +5.6% -4.5% 69% 44% -5.2%
≤90d 104 -0.9% -10.3% 70% 32% -16.3%
all 405 -1.7% -11.0% 75% 36% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 36% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 15% -20.5%
15% -27.3% 6% -28.2%
20% -34.4% 5% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$757) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$283 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$7,696
Realized−$10,480
Unrealized+$853
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses302 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$185
Open positions4
Markets (closed)405 / 409
History coverage198d ⚠
Avg bet$932
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $4,500 $4,978 +$478 (+11%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $896 $1,199 +$303 (+34%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 82¢ 88¢ $1,022 $1,097 +$74 (+7%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $425 $422 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $155 +$45 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $314 +$186 +60%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $936 +$264 +28%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $264 −$260 -99%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $405 +$95 +24%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $320 +$30 +9%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $199 +$38 +19%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $294 −$292 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $358 +$92 +26%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $224 +$176 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $196 +$204 +104%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,207 −$116 -10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $178 +$152 +85%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,660 +$840 +32%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,054 +$486 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $295 −$295 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $180 +$220 +122%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $385 −$385 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $1,991 +$209 +10%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $312 −$308 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $108 +$192 +178%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1,892 +$107 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,926 +$74 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $1,922 +$78 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,523 +$37 +2%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $380 +$20 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $837 +$72 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $3,141 −$186 -6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $104 +$96 +92%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $152 −$152 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 29 $259 +$221 +85%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 25 $416 +$16 +4%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $232 −$100 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $300 −$292 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $425 −$412 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,049 +$151 +14%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 20 $132 −$132 -100%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $749 +$51 +7%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $108 −$108 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $1,850 +$150 +8%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 19 $171 +$129 +75%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $267 +$33 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $1,097 +$153 +14%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,455 +$235 +16%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $1,170 +$230 +20%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 16 $176 +$124 +70%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $4,659 +$41 +1%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $89 −$21 -24%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $494 −$334 -68%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $120 +$30 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $79 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $304 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $314 13h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $427 13h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $516 25h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $132 36h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $132 37h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $385 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $134 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $27 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $35 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $100 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $55 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $320 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $57 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $294 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $17 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $20 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $5 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $2 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $125 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 70¢ $139 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $73 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,696.27 · official $7,696.27 (match) · 3494 history records