Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6ed3…0a22 sports 1116 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,286 (+2%) realized +$3,912 · open +$374
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%606W / 479L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$1,127est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$9,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$808
7 days+$343
14 days−$829
30 days+$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$4,331
other 49% +$7,517
world 1% +$531
crypto 0% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +25.4% +13.4% 56% 53% -8.7%
≤30d 308 +9.6% -0.8% 54% 52% -9.2%
≤90d 1085 +6.2% -3.9% 56% 55% -7.6%
all 1085 +6.2% -3.9% 56% 55% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 55% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 53% -16.5%
15% -21.5% 47% -24.5%
20% -29.2% 37% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$131 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$9,408
Realized+$3,912
Unrealized+$374
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses606 / 479
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,127
Open positions31
Markets (closed)1085 / 1116
History coverage66d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 1085 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $924 $930 +$6 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 72¢ $696 $870 +$174 (+25%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 69¢ $852 $834 −$18 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 92¢ $512 $740 +$228 (+45%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $588 $606 +$18 (+3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $454 $463 +$9 (+2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 54¢ $295 $425 +$130 (+44%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $348 $373 +$25 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $358 $369 +$11 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $248 $366 +$118 (+48%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $368 $355 −$13 (-4%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 86¢ $179 $342 +$163 (+91%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $340 $286 −$54 (-16%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 71¢ $268 $284 +$16 (+6%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $316 $278 −$38 (-12%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 66¢ $260 $262 +$2 (+1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 26¢ $236 $212 −$24 (-10%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 22¢ $208 $180 −$28 (-13%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 42¢ $184 $166 −$18 (-10%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 40¢ $148 $158 +$10 (+7%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $158 $158 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $120 $150 +$30 (+25%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $128 $122 −$6 (-5%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $132 $110 −$22 (-17%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $68 $72 +$4 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 334 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $309 +$109 +35%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $585 +$615 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $597 +$603 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $852 +$348 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $552 +$648 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $525 −$516 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,001 −$996 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $960 +$240 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,269 −$69 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $778 +$422 +54%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $368 −$360 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $516 −$516 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $396 −$396 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $576 +$624 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $978 +$222 +23%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $348 +$122 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $456 +$744 +163%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,152 +$48 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $756 +$444 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,806 −$606 -34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 +$1,089 +982%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $823 +$405 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $343 +$387 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $288 +$912 +317%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $922 −$242 -26%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 15 $744 −$744 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $930 −$924 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $936 −$936 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $966 +$234 +24%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $876 −$876 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $367 +$136 +37%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $871 −$864 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $660 −$650 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $609 −$600 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $525 +$675 +129%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $876 +$324 +37%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $936 +$264 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,008 +$192 +19%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,193 +$7 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,027 +$225 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $513 +$687 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $204 +$996 +488%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $504 +$696 +138%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $492 +$708 +144%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $864 −$864 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $540 −$540 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $828 +$372 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $859 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $597 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $585 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $525 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $1,001 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $15 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $366 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $122 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 12h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $334 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $518 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $597 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $705 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $930 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $597 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $960 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $660 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $368 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 63¢ $299 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 63¢ $34 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $300 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $444 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $516 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $450 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $4 41h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $55 43h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $9 43h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 43h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,408.10 · official $9,426.33 (match) · 2461 history records