Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6ed4…8c3c sports 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$124 (+1%) realized +$272 · open −$148
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%33W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$2,611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,164
14 days+$1,164
30 days+$924
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$99
sports 33% +$701
world 7% +$66
culture 2% −$115
politics 1% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +170.9% +145.1% 75% 75% +59.6%
≤30d 11 +118.8% +97.9% 64% 64% +34.1%
≤90d 11 +118.8% +97.9% 64% 64% +34.1%
all 74 +1.4% -8.2% 45% 45% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 45% +0.3%
10% -17.0% 43% -9.3%
15% -25.0% 38% -18.1%
20% -32.4% 30% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$54 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$2,611
Realized+$272
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses33 / 41
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions9
Markets (closed)74 / 83
History coverage366d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $600 $742 +$142 (+24%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $359 $357 −$2 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $450 $275 −$175 (-39%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $196 −$104 (-35%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $508 −$78 -15%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 +$172 +335%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $204 +$278 +136%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $303 +$151 +50%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$133 +650%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $153 +$408 +266%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $262 +$120 +46%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $103 −$9 -9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $255 −$250 -98%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco May 29 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 27 $21 +$16 +79%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jan 11 $40 −$40 -100%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv Jan 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Barcelona vs. Monaco Dec 31 $131 +$149 +114%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Dec 29 $60 −$15 -25%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $50 −$10 -20%
Monaco vs. Real Madrid Dec 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Virtus Bologna vs. Olympiacos B.C. Dec 26 $60 −$60 -100%
BC Dubai vs. Olimpia Milano Dec 26 $20 +$16 +79%
Paris Basketball vs. KK Crvena Zvezda Dec 23 $100 −$100 -100%
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. FC Bayern Munchen Dec 19 $30 +$30 +100%
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Valencia Dec 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Virtus Bologna vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv Dec 14 $150 +$96 +64%
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Saski Baskonia Nov 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Olimpia Milano vs. ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne Nov 13 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Barcelona Nov 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Nov 13 $100 −$100 -100%
BC Dubai vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv Nov 09 $100 +$47 +47%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-05? Nov 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Nov 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Nov 06 $10 +$39 +400%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-05? Nov 06 $100 +$97 +97%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Nov 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? Nov 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Nov 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? Nov 03 $100 +$52 +52%
Monaco vs. Panathinaikos Nov 01 $60 +$45 +75%
Partizan vs. Barcelona Nov 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Olimpia Milano vs. Paris Basketball Oct 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Partizan Oct 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Panathinaikos vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv Oct 29 $20 −$20 -100%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Real Madrid Oct 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Barcelona vs. Olimpia Milano Oct 29 $40 +$16 +41%
Saski Baskonia vs. BC Dubai Oct 28 $40 −$40 -100%
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne Oct 28 $100 +$23 +23%
Virtus Bologna vs. Panathinaikos Oct 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Real Madrid vs. Barcelona end in a draw? Oct 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $362 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 39¢ $430 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $508 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 86¢ $223 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $481 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 27¢ $153 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $262 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $463 17d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $308 17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $618 17d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $65 17d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $94 17d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $68 22d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $255 28d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 25¢ $38 120d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 68¢ $40 167d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $40 167d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel Aviv 53¢ $40 178d
Barcelona vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 47¢ $131 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,611.21 · official $2,611.21 (match) · 184 history records