Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6ed6…6967 world 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$310 (-15%) realized −$310 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days−$273
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$13
other 18% −$310
sports 15% +$22
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.3% +3.4% 60% 40% -5.1%
≤30d 9 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 22% -21.5%
≤90d 9 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 22% -21.5%
all 9 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 22% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 22% -21.5%
10% -20.3% 22% -29.1%
15% -28.0% 0% -35.9%
20% -35.1% 0% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$111 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$310
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage11d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? Jun 20 $61 +$20 +33%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 20 $49 +$16 +33%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun Jun 20 $34 +$2 +6%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 19 $323 $0 +0%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $309 −$1 -0%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 10 $327 −$326 -100%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $332 −$7 -2%
Spread: Liberia (-2.5) Jun 09 $311 +$22 +7%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 09 $310 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $40 1h
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? BUY Yes $30 1h
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? BUY Yes $31 1h
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL Yes $56 1h
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 1h
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $10 2h
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY Yes $19 2h
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY Yes $20 2h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun SELL Yes $17 2h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun SELL Yes $19 2h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun BUY Yes $17 3h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun BUY Yes $17 3h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL No 91¢ $323 22h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY No 91¢ $323 23h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $308 23h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $309 26h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 94¢ $327 9d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $325 9d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $332 9d
Spread: Liberia (-2.5) BUY Sierra Leone 93¢ $311 10d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $310 10d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $310 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records