Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6ed8…7559 sports 218 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$359 (+3%) realized +$357 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%102W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days+$81
14 days+$362
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$33
other 3% +$258
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +72.4% +55.9% 54% 54% -5.7%
≤30d 96 +10.4% -0.1% 44% 44% -7.9%
≤90d 216 +9.5% -0.9% 47% 46% -7.2%
all 216 +9.5% -0.9% 47% 46% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 46% -7.2%
10% -10.4% 46% -16.1%
15% -19.1% 44% -24.2%
20% -27.0% 41% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$45 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$357
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses102 / 114
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions1
Markets (closed)216 / 218
History coverage78d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffs UNO MILLE 37¢ 38¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame Jun 28 $62 +$14 +23%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 27 $14 +$17 +122%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Just Players (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 27 $60 +$47 +78%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $30 +$39 +129%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 27 $60 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 27 $42 +$33 +79%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S Jun 27 $61 −$59 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $61 +$79 +129%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 25 $24 +$14 +60%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh Jun 25 $59 −$59 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs Alzon (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun Jun 24 $152 +$69 +46%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - Gamers Cl Jun 24 $120 +$77 +64%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $90 +$80 +89%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $60 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $91 −$89 -98%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs 4M (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A J Jun 23 $62 +$39 +63%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Gr Jun 23 $444 +$70 +16%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $10 +$190 +1845%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $60 +$47 +79%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $60 +$80 +133%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $31 +$28 +93%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $60 +$43 +71%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $90 −$25 -27%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $49 +$73 +148%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $90 +$124 +138%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 +$59 +97%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $60 −$60 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$28 +93%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$60 +197%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$61 +203%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $2 +$2 +85%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $61 +$72 +119%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $30 +$30 +97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -98%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 09 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 09 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 09 $61 −$60 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions BUY UNO MILLE 37¢ $61 1h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY paiN Academy 60¢ $41 23h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY paiN Academy 60¢ $8 23h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY paiN Academy 60¢ $7 23h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY paiN Academy 60¢ $4 23h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $2 35h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S BUY Keyd 36¢ $61 36h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $2 36h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $0 37h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $1 37h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $1 37h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $2 37h
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY BESTIA Academy 40¢ $58 37h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $2 37h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $3 38h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $4 38h
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Just Players (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar BUY Just Players 56¢ $33 38h
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Just Players (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar BUY Just Players 56¢ $4 38h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $6 38h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $1 38h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $7 38h
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Just Players (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar BUY Just Players 56¢ $23 38h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $9 39h
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick W BUY largadosypelados 45¢ $14 39h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $1 39h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY MIBR Academy 19¢ $19 39h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 43¢ $30 41h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 45¢ $30 41h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY paiN Academy 52¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY paiN Academy 52¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.37 · official $62.37 (match) · 542 history records