Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6edb…4200 crypto 185 markets active 5d ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%69W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$52
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$9
other 10% −$46
sports 1% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -19.4% -27.1% 16% 14% -49.0%
≤30d 62 -11.1% -19.6% 16% 15% -37.4%
≤90d 95 -33.2% -39.5% 12% 11% -46.5%
all 185 -5.9% -14.8% 37% 34% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 34% -9.4%
10% -23.0% 28% -18.1%
15% -30.4% 23% -26.0%
20% -37.2% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses69 / 116
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)185 / 185
History coverage120d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 185 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 -35%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 +$12 +786%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -86%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 $0 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $6 −$4 -74%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 +$20 +1290%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -93%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 $0 -32%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -84%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $11 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 6d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 567 history records