Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:19:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6edd…728c other 26 markets active 3d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$23,341 (+50%) realized +$23,300 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$1,813per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$641now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days−$157
14 days−$781
30 days−$781
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% +$24,054
other 9% −$385
crypto 1% −$305
sports 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -33.6% -39.9% 36% 36% -17.1%
≤30d 19 -32.2% -38.7% 37% 37% -28.1%
≤90d 24 -17.4% -25.3% 42% 42% +35.8%
all 24 -17.4% -25.3% 42% 42% +35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 42% +35.8%
10% -32.4% 42% +22.8%
15% -39.0% 42% +10.9%
20% -45.0% 42% +0.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +50% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,561 vs −$167 · ×15.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.95 per $1 lost it wins $10.95
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$641
Realized+$23,300
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage73d
Avg bet$1,813
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $400 $450 +$50 (+12%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$120 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $303 −$257 -85%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$148 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $505 +$276 +55%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$131 +128%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$189 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$166 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$222 +109%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 10 $40,010 +$20,666 +52%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 19 $1,665 +$2,204 +132%
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this e Apr 14 $711 +$1,491 +210%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 10¢ $45 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $232 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 11d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament BUY Yes $57 72d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament BUY Yes 33¢ $250 72d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament SELL Yes 99¢ $307 72d
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this e BUY Yes 32¢ $711 72d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament BUY Yes 43¢ $1,000 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $641.23 · official $641.26 (match) · 47 history records