trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 100% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 56% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 56% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 25 | -4.1% | -13.2% | 56% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.2% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -21.5% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -29.1% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -36.0% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $32 | $32 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 17 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 03 | $55 | +$2 | +4% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 02 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 02 | $97 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 31 | $51 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 31 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 29 | $36 | −$3 | -7% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $33 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | Jul 01 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jun 07 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? | Jun 06 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | -11% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 08 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? | Apr 23 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Apr 25? | Apr 23 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mark Carney lose his seat? | Apr 22 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 20? | Apr 21 | $9 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 20 | $19 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first | Apr 19 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 | Apr 19 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? | Mar 28 | $13 | $0 | -2% |