Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:28:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

6E 0x6edf…ca5a other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$73 (+14%) realized +$74 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%6W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$54per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+14.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+26.6%	+14.6%	100%	100%	+8.8%
≤30d	6	+26.6%	+14.6%	100%	100%	+8.8%
≤90d	6	+26.6%	+14.6%	100%	100%	+8.8%
all	6	+26.6%	+14.6%	100%	100%	+8.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+14.6%	100%	+8.8%
10%	+3.6%	67%	-1.6%
15%	-6.4%	17%	-11.1%
20%	-15.6%	17%	-19.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 54% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$179

Realized+$74

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses6 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)6 / 10

History coverage4d

Avg bet$54

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	83¢	83¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	73¢	72¢	$40	$40	−$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$40	$40	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	Jun 28	$50	+$12	+24%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	Jun 26	$3	+$2	+60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$100	+$15	+14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$101	+$24	+24%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$50	+$13	+26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$50	+$6	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	73¢	$40	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$41	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	48¢	$51	9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	80¢	$50	18h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	BUY Senegal	62¢	$3	2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee	BUY No	83¢	$50	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	87¢	$100	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	80¢	$101	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	100¢	$63	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$56	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	79¢	$50	4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.77 · official $178.77 (match) · 16 history records