Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ee3…a899 crypto 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$395 (-12%) realized −$363 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%120W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$2
14 days−$16
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$228
finance 20% −$63
other 18% −$40
crypto 17% −$98
weather 6% −$22
world 5% −$27
politics 4% +$5
tech 2% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -7.3% -16.1% 67% 64% -8.9%
≤30d 63 -22.1% -29.5% 49% 48% -24.0%
≤90d 224 -16.8% -24.7% 54% 43% -21.4%
all 224 -16.8% -24.7% 54% 43% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 43% -21.4%
10% -31.9% 30% -28.9%
15% -38.5% 20% -35.8%
20% -44.5% 13% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$363
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses120 / 104
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)224 / 226
History coverage83d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 71¢ 47¢ $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $31 +$53 +171%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $28 −$28 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$4 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 +$6 +56%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $40 +$20 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $25 −$19 -76%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $20 −$10 -50%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 1h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $82 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 49¢ $28 45h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.37 · official $148.37 (match) · 484 history records