Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:59:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6ee4…8c98 other 362 markets active 12h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,820 (-8%) realized −$5,783 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%161W / 196L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$663now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,565
7 days−$2,126
14 days−$2,245
30 days−$2,015
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$5,212
sports 15% −$1,019
crypto 2% −$584
world 1% +$395
politics 1% −$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -27.6% -34.5% 38% 38% -30.7%
≤30d 64 -12.7% -21.0% 47% 47% -21.0%
≤90d 114 -13.9% -22.1% 45% 44% -22.9%
all 357 -7.3% -16.2% 45% 45% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 45% -17.8%
10% -24.2% 44% -25.6%
15% -31.5% 40% -32.8%
20% -38.2% 34% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$180 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$663
Realized−$5,783
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses161 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions5
Markets (closed)357 / 362
History coverage252d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $100 $184 +$84 (+84%)
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 57¢ $200 $167 −$33 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $131 −$69 (-34%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $306 −$300 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 26 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $237 −$237 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 +$189 +93%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $202 +$120 +60%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$142 +140%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$106 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $707 +$359 +51%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $202 −$202 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $407 +$482 +119%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $517 +$404 +78%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $404 +$184 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $102 +$168 +165%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 22 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $301 −$301 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $323 −$323 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $404 −$404 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $102 +$193 +189%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$202 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $304 +$222 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $406 −$406 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 +$95 +93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $304 +$188 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $508 +$534 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $304 −$304 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $71 +$81 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $122 +$164 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $605 +$252 +42%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$262 +129%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $212 +$92 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $306 12h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 39¢ $204 40h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 65¢ $101 40h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 40h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 40h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $204 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $237 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $202 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $102 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $404 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $202 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $102 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $407 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $314 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $404 4d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 5d
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 69¢ $202 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $323 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $662.69 · official $662.69 (match) · 1040 history records