Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6E 0x6ee4…80f2 sports 550 markets active 2h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24,754 (-3%) realized −$24,748 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%369W / 180L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,632per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$186
14 days+$186
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$16,683
other 6% −$2,291
crypto 4% +$1,172
politics 4% +$296
world 0% +$365
culture 0% −$38
tech 0% +$87
economics 0% +$6
weather 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.9% -3.3% 100% 0% -3.4%
≤30d 2 +6.9% -3.3% 100% 0% -3.4%
≤90d 14 -21.5% -28.9% 57% 43% -13.1%
all 549 -4.7% -13.8% 67% 33% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 33% -11.3%
10% -22.0% 17% -19.8%
15% -29.5% 8% -27.5%
20% -36.5% 5% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$2,495) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$206 vs −$518 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$2,496
Realized−$24,748
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses369 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)549 / 550
History coverage589d
Avg bet$1,632
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 549 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,442 +$62 +4%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $1,314 +$125 +10%
Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 04 $820 −$820 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $450 −$87 -19%
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma Mar 29 $500 −$500 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prel Mar 29 $350 +$96 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight Mar 29 $1,813 +$480 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 28 $1,496 +$317 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flywei Mar 28 $200 +$128 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Mar 28 $214 +$70 +33%
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 28 $300 −$246 -82%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, M Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Mar 21 $311 −$311 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca Mar 21 $2,126 +$340 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweigh Mar 21 $1,656 +$215 +13%
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) Mar 21 $1,468 −$132 -9%
UFC Fight Night: Nathaniel Wood vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Preli Mar 21 $200 −$32 -16%
UFC Fight Night: Mario Pinto vs. Felipe Franco (Heavyweight, Prelims) Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Antonio Trocoli vs. Mantas Kondratavicius (Middleweig Mar 21 $1,753 +$193 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Shem Rock (Lightweight, P Mar 21 $1,351 +$402 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Shanelle Dyer vs. Ravena Oliveira (Women's Strawweigh Mar 21 $571 +$53 +9%
Magic vs. Heat Mar 15 $689 +$31 +4%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Pr Mar 15 $1,315 +$327 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Mar 15 $965 +$349 +36%
UFC 326: Rodolfo Bellato vs. Luke Fernandez (Light Heavyweight, Early Mar 07 $2,761 −$2,761 -100%
UFC Fight Night: King Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber (Lightweight, Main Ca Mar 02 $3,114 +$94 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Mar 02 $5,007 −$84 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Felipe Bunes vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Main Card) Mar 01 $100 +$38 +38%
UFC Fight Night: Angel Pacheco vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main C Mar 01 $2,864 +$151 +5%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 22 $100 +$9 +9%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese (Middleweight, Main Feb 22 $100 +$127 +127%
UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Car Feb 22 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Car Feb 22 $2,864 +$624 +22%
Pacers vs. Knicks Feb 14 $3,129 +$236 +8%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 10 $3,030 +$99 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, M Feb 08 $200 −$103 -52%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Amir Albazi (Flyweight, Main Card Feb 08 $2,683 +$545 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (Middlew Feb 08 $200 −$200 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker (Light Heavyweight, M Feb 08 $300 −$200 -67%
UFC Fight Night: Javid Basharat vs. Gianni Vazquez (Bantamweight, Prel Feb 08 $2,418 +$565 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Wang Cong vs. Eduarda Moura (Women's Flyweight, Preli Feb 07 $2,015 +$599 +30%
76ers vs. Lakers Feb 06 $1,446 +$417 +29%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Feb 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 5PM ET Feb 06 $787 +$710 +90%
Will Solana reach $120 in February? Feb 05 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 7? Feb 05 $100 −$10 -10%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 2PM ET Feb 05 $958 −$359 -38%
UFC Fight Night: Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wiklacz (Bantamweight, Prelims Feb 05 $100 −$2 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Klaudia Sygula (Women's Bantam Feb 05 $200 −$12 -6%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Morono vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Preli Feb 05 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,442 1h
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,438 1h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,314 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 3h
Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $820 76d
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car SELL Israel Adesanya 33¢ $117 82d
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma BUY Maycee Barber 64¢ $250 82d
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prel SELL Lerryan Douglas 100¢ $347 82d
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prel BUY Lerryan Douglas 72¢ $250 82d
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight SELL Yousri Belgaroui 100¢ $2,293 82d
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight BUY Yousri Belgaroui 79¢ $1,813 82d
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim SELL Tyrell Fortune 100¢ $1,813 82d
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim BUY Tyrell Fortune 86¢ $1,396 82d
UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flywei SELL Casey ONeill 100¢ $328 82d
UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flywei BUY Casey ONeill 61¢ $200 82d
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) SELL Ricky Simon 13¢ $54 82d
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Ricky Simon 79¢ $200 82d
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car BUY Israel Adesanya 56¢ $200 83d
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car SELL Israel Adesanya 55¢ $246 83d
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car BUY Israel Adesanya 56¢ $250 83d
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma BUY Maycee Barber 63¢ $250 83d
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prel SELL Lerryan Douglas 74¢ $99 83d
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Ricky Simon 63¢ $100 83d
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim BUY Tyrell Fortune 54¢ $100 83d
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prel BUY Lerryan Douglas 75¢ $100 83d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, M BUY Bruno Lopes 15¢ $100 83d
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main BUY Lerone Murphy 84¢ $100 89d
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main BUY Lerone Murphy 67¢ $150 89d
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main BUY Lerone Murphy 65¢ $61 89d
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca SELL Luke Riley 100¢ $2,466 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,495.95 · official $2,495.95 (match) · 1703 history records