Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ee4…0bd9 world 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$1
other 17% +$4
sports 13% −$12
politics 12% −$4
economics 11% −$1
weather 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.0% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 24 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 37 -1.9% -11.3% 22% 5% -9.8%
all 59 -7.9% -16.7% 25% 12% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 12% -10.0%
10% -24.7% 10% -18.6%
15% -31.9% 10% -26.5%
20% -38.6% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 44
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage529d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 69¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $105 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $74 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $123 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $212 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -15%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $9 −$3 -32%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $42 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $19 +$8 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $37 −$2 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $50 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $9 −$2 -18%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $77 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $22 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $9 +$1 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $2 $0 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $294 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $313 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $295 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $3 $0 -5%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $15 −$8 -52%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $335 −$1 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $252 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Austin Peay Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2025 LIV Riyadh Tournament? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
FA Cup: Wigan Athletic vs. Fulham (To Advance) Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 8? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Stars vs. Sharks Feb 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Little Rock vs. Morehead State Feb 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Will MIBR win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff? Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the match between FC Porto and Sporting CP end in a draw? Feb 08 $6 +$15 +233%
Will Joe Burrow win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 5? Feb 06 $3 +$7 +194%
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Wednesday? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $37 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $21 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $37 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $37 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $40 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $40 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $8 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $23 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.67 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records