trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 100% | 0% | -8.6% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 100% | 0% | -7.5% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 100% | 0% | -8.2% |
| all | 40 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 78% | 30% | -11.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.5% | 30% | -11.1% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 25% | -19.6% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 25% | -27.4% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 18% | -34.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $47 | $47 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? | Jun 22 | $49 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? | Jun 22 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? | Jun 03 | $47 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 03 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? | May 27 | $47 | $0 | +1% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? | May 27 | $48 | +$2 | +5% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $48 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | May 22 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? | May 19 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 15 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? | May 07 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? | May 06 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 05 | $50 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? | May 01 | $19 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 16 | $19 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 | Apr 16 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | Apr 16 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 16 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Mar 04 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on August 22? | Aug 20 | $1,069 | −$1,069 | -100% |
| Lynx vs Liberty | Aug 20 | $1,189 | +$1,054 | +89% |
| XRP Up or Down on August 15? | Aug 18 | $793 | +$793 | +100% |
| Rockies vs. Cardinals | Aug 11 | $514 | −$514 | -100% |
| Solana Up or Down on August 10? | Aug 08 | $850 | −$850 | -100% |
| XRP Up or Down on August 7? | Aug 06 | $461 | −$461 | -100% |
| Brewers vs. Braves | Aug 05 | $950 | +$688 | +72% |
| Cardinals vs. Padres | Aug 01 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies | Apr 18 | $271 | −$271 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | Apr 16 | $224 | −$224 | -100% |
| Utah vs. Predators | Apr 15 | $185 | −$185 | -100% |
| Blackhawks vs. Bruins | Apr 11 | $174 | +$261 | +150% |
| Maple Leafs vs. Lightning | Apr 10 | $210 | −$210 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Heat | Apr 08 | $370 | +$41 | +11% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on April 5? | Apr 07 | $240 | +$240 | +100% |
| Predators vs. Flyers | Apr 04 | $177 | +$157 | +89% |
| Suns vs. Timberwolves | Mar 31 | $307 | +$125 | +41% |
| Arkansas vs. Texas Tech | Mar 28 | $137 | +$62 | +45% |
| Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs | Mar 24 | $100 | +$117 | +117% |
| Wizards vs. Pistons | Mar 18 | $200 | +$25 | +12% |
| Red Wings vs. Capitals | Mar 11 | $199 | +$98 | +49% |