Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6E 0x6ee5…208c sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$162 (-2%) realized −$162 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate78%31W / 9L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1,175
crypto 36% −$1,347
other 4% +$6
politics 2% +$1
finance 2% +$3
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 7 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 17 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.2%
all 40 +0.1% -9.5% 78% 30% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 30% -11.1%
10% -18.1% 25% -19.6%
15% -26.0% 25% -27.4%
20% -33.3% 18% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$426 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses31 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage472d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Jun 22 $49 +$1 +1%
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? Jun 03 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 27 $47 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 27 $48 +$2 +5%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? May 23 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 22 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? May 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 05 $50 $0 +1%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 01 $19 $0 +2%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Apr 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $21 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 22? Aug 20 $1,069 −$1,069 -100%
Lynx vs Liberty Aug 20 $1,189 +$1,054 +89%
XRP Up or Down on August 15? Aug 18 $793 +$793 +100%
Rockies vs. Cardinals Aug 11 $514 −$514 -100%
Solana Up or Down on August 10? Aug 08 $850 −$850 -100%
XRP Up or Down on August 7? Aug 06 $461 −$461 -100%
Brewers vs. Braves Aug 05 $950 +$688 +72%
Cardinals vs. Padres Aug 01 $50 −$50 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 18 $271 −$271 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Apr 16 $224 −$224 -100%
Utah vs. Predators Apr 15 $185 −$185 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Bruins Apr 11 $174 +$261 +150%
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Apr 10 $210 −$210 -100%
76ers vs. Heat Apr 08 $370 +$41 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 5? Apr 07 $240 +$240 +100%
Predators vs. Flyers Apr 04 $177 +$157 +89%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Mar 31 $307 +$125 +41%
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Mar 28 $137 +$62 +45%
Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs Mar 24 $100 +$117 +117%
Wizards vs. Pistons Mar 18 $200 +$25 +12%
Red Wings vs. Capitals Mar 11 $199 +$98 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 4h
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 6d
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $49 12d
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 12d
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? SELL No 98¢ $1 18d
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? SELL No 98¢ $21 18d
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? SELL No 98¢ $27 18d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 19d
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? BUY No 94¢ $47 22d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $48 25d
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 95¢ $48 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 99¢ $50 26d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 95¢ $19 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 95¢ $29 30d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $49 30d
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $47 32d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 34d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $49 35d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 36d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 37d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 39d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $31 44d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $17 44d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 44d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.92 · official $96.92 (match) · 112 history records