Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

6E 0x6ee6…929b politics 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 673d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$60 (-2%) realized −$58 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate47%7W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$193per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$665now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-17.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	15	-8.6%	-17.3%	47%	33%	-11.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.3%	33%	-11.4%
10%	-25.2%	33%	-19.9%
15%	-32.4%	27%	-27.6%
20%	-39.1%	20%	-34.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

29% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -18% → late -1% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.21 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

673d coverage

Net worth$665

Realized−$58

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses7 / 8

Open positions3

Markets (closed)15 / 18

History coverage673d

Avg bet$193

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	98¢	98¢	$650	$650	−$0 (-0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	21¢	21¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	56¢	37¢	$4	$3	−$1 (-33%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Mar 17	$2,000	−$4	-0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	Mar 14	$4	+$3	+74%
Will Revolut launch their own stablecoin in 2025?	Mar 14	$6	+$2	+41%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Oct 07	$4	+$4	+100%
French election called by December 31?	Oct 07	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Paul Skenes be the National League starting pitcher for the 2025	Oct 07	$5	+$4	+80%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	Jul 02	$7	−$7	-100%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?	Feb 20	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?	Feb 20	$46	+$1	+2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?	Jan 25	$40	−$20	-50%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?	Jan 20	$4	−$4	-100%
Ethereum all time high in 2024?	Jan 20	$3	+$1	+24%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?	Nov 26	$165	−$6	-4%
Will Biden finish his term?	Nov 25	$15	+$1	+7%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?	Aug 30	$500	−$11	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	2h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	98¢	$650	2h
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL No	99¢	$1,996	97d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY No	100¢	$2,000	100d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY Yes	50¢	$4	258d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	56¢	$4	258d
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	BUY Yes	58¢	$4	258d
French election called by December 31?	BUY Yes	72¢	$2	258d
Will Paul Skenes be the National League starting pitcher for the 2025	BUY Yes	55¢	$5	355d
Will Revolut launch their own stablecoin in 2025?	BUY No	71¢	$6	355d
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?	SELL Yes	0¢	$20	512d
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$40	518d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?	BUY Yes	98¢	$46	540d
Ethereum all time high in 2024?	BUY No	81¢	$3	572d
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	BUY Yes	73¢	$7	572d
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?	BUY Yes	23¢	$4	572d
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?	SELL Yes	90¢	$159	572d
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?	BUY Yes	94¢	$160	574d
Will Biden finish his term?	SELL Yes	90¢	$16	574d
Will Biden finish his term?	BUY Yes	84¢	$15	660d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?	SELL No	92¢	$489	660d
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?	BUY Yes	83¢	$5	673d
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?	BUY Yes	14¢	$20	673d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?	BUY No	94¢	$500	673d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.28 · official $665.28 (match) · 32 history records