Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:48:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6ee9…3cf4 crypto 53 markets active 10d ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%30W / 21L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$448per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$11
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$32
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -8.2% -16.9% 92% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 21 -37.9% -43.8% 62% 0% -9.5%
all 51 -37.0% -43.0% 59% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -48.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -53.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -58.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,061) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses30 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage200d
Avg bet$448
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,054 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,053 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,051 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,048 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,046 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,044 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,043 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,041 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,039 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 19? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 10? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1? May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 21? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 3? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on March 26? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on March 19? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 13? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 2 Feb 24 $1,121 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 22? Feb 22 $1,118 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 2 Feb 22 $1,115 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 Feb 21 $1,112 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 19? Feb 20 $1,106 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 18? Feb 18 $1,102 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $1,098 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 16? Feb 17 $1,094 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on February 15? Feb 15 $1,087 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 14 Feb 15 $1,083 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 13 Feb 14 $1,079 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on February 12? Feb 13 $1,070 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 11 Feb 12 $1,061 +$7 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$480 on the final day of trading of th Feb 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on February 10? Feb 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on February 2? Feb 02 $0 $0 -100%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $215 in January? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 25? Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 19 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,054 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,053 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,051 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,048 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,046 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,044 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,043 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,041 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,039 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 31d
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 38d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 40d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 49d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1? BUY No 0¢ $2 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 68d
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri BUY No 100¢ $3 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12? BUY No 0¢ $2 77d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 83d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 86d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on March 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 94d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on March 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 101d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 4? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 116d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 122d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $1,121 125d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,118 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.21 · official $4.21 (match) · 93 history records