Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ee9…d2e0 crypto 379 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%188W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$45
14 days−$19
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$77
sports 18% −$38
world 13% +$15
other 7% +$16
politics 4% −$10
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +4.1% -5.8% 46% 28% -17.1%
≤30d 374 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 33% -12.9%
≤90d 377 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 33% -12.7%
all 377 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 33% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 33% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 27% -21.1%
15% -27.4% 21% -28.7%
20% -34.5% 18% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses188 / 189
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)377 / 379
History coverage31d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 377 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 -5%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -19%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $17 +$2 +9%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $3 +$1 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$7 -75%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$7 -30%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 14 $7 −$1 -10%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $17 +$1 +8%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 -14%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 +$1 +11%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $4 −$3 -82%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $49 −$5 -10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 −$2 -17%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -50%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -43%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $11 +$3 +24%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $10 +$5 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $5 +$7 +138%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$6 +216%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$30 +1521%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $3 +$1 +17%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$3 +56%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $3 54m
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 73¢ $1 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 72¢ $3 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 71¢ $3 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $0 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 8h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $3 9h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $3 9h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 56¢ $9 9h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 18h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 18h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 20h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 62¢ $3 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $3 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $2 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 27¢ $3 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $5 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 69¢ $3 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 86¢ $2 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $3 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.38 · official $10.38 (match) · 1348 history records