Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6eeb…a03a world 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%18W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1
sports 20% −$5
other 18% +$7
politics 10% $0
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 33 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 53 -0.0% -9.5% 30% 0% -9.5%
all 59 -1.8% -11.1% 31% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 3% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses18 / 41
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage528d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $11 −$1 -7%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $83 −$7 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 +$2 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $37 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $36 +$2 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $36 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $121 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $90 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $77 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $21 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $7 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $30 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $39 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $38 +$2 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $50 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $214 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $3 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $279 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $298 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $298 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $333 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $269 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $37 27m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $37 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $8 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $28 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $2 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $37 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $8 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $26 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $34 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $6 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $9 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $34 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records