Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6eef…3894 crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+7%) realized +$73 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate82%73W / 16L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$65
14 days+$68
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 68% +$56
crypto 32% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +8.9% -1.5% 92% 62% +1.8%
≤30d 89 -0.2% -9.7% 82% 44% -3.1%
≤90d 89 -0.2% -9.7% 82% 44% -3.1%
all 89 -0.2% -9.7% 82% 44% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 44% -3.1%
10% -18.4% 37% -12.4%
15% -26.2% 17% -20.9%
20% -33.5% 2% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses73 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage20d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? No 81¢ 71¢ $92 $81 −$11 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $92 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $88 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $72 +$16 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $60 +$13 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $39 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $34 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? BUY No 81¢ $93 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? SELL No 99¢ $94 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $92 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? SELL No 98¢ $92 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $88 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? SELL No 92¢ $89 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 74¢ $72 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $72 45h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $60 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 83¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $46 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $46 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $39 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $40 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $34 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $11 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $23 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $18 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.07 · official $81.07 (match) · 181 history records