Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:56:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6E 0x6ef3…dbcd other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$91 (+39%) realized +$35 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$66
sports 39% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +36.5% +23.5% 60% 60% +41.6%
≤30d 5 +36.5% +23.5% 60% 60% +41.6%
≤90d 5 +36.5% +23.5% 60% 60% +41.6%
all 5 +36.5% +23.5% 60% 60% +41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.5% 60% +41.6%
10% +11.7% 60% +28.1%
15% +0.9% 60% +15.7%
20% -9.0% 40% +4.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$20 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 100¢ $50 $110 +$60 (+121%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$68 +133%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $21 +$42 +205%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$23 +45%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 32¢ $21 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 20h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.31 · official $126.31 (match) · 11 history records