Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:44:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6ef4…557b other 55 markets active 3d ago coverage 711d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,333 (-17%) realized −$3,391 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%29W / 22L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$215
7 days+$343
14 days+$191
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$2,471
other 27% −$408
world 15% −$202
crypto 13% −$310
sports 2% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.2% -13.3% 64% 57% +4.6%
≤30d 21 +10.8% +0.3% 62% 57% -5.0%
≤90d 21 +10.8% +0.3% 62% 57% -5.0%
all 51 -9.6% -18.2% 57% 43% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 43% -25.6%
10% -26.0% 29% -32.7%
15% -33.2% 22% -39.2%
20% -39.7% 14% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$268 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

711d coverage
Net worth$558
Realized−$3,391
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses29 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage711d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $200 $223 +$23 (+11%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 49¢ 88¢ $100 $179 +$79 (+79%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$136 +134%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $101 +$52 +52%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$77 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $113 −$96 -84%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$222 +73%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $352 +$97 +28%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$194 +474%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $201 +$47 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $504 +$210 +42%
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA before April? Jan 22 $19 −$9 -47%
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? Jan 22 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 22 $500 +$43 +9%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26? Jan 13 $120 −$120 -100%
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? Jan 03 $20 +$13 +67%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 03 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Jan 03 $200 +$22 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? Jan 03 $593 +$89 +15%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Jan 03 $2,437 +$260 +11%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Dec 24 $178 +$21 +12%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Nov 26 $751 +$42 +6%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? Nov 21 $471 −$471 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? Nov 15 $510 −$510 -100%
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? Nov 11 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $4,036 −$2,615 -65%
Another Iran strike on Israel in October? Nov 05 $100 +$9 +9%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 27 $1,005 −$134 -13%
Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August? Aug 25 $20 −$20 -100%
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 13 $233 −$201 -86%
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 11 $700 +$134 +19%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 06 $779 +$49 +6%
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 06 $587 −$57 -10%
Iran military response by Sunday? Aug 06 $10 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $200 −$10 -5%
Biden drops out in July? Jul 22 $547 +$237 +43%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Jul 22 $420 +$249 +59%
Will Trump say "jew" during RNC speech? Jul 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump say "unity" during RNC speech? Jul 19 $20 +$5 +24%
Will England win the 2024 Euros? Jul 18 $319 −$319 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 49¢ $102 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $17 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $113 5d
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 6d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $102 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $301 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 8d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $557.53 · official $557.53 (match) · 198 history records