Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6ef5…20c5 crypto 204 markets active 2h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$514 (+1%) realized +$514 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate85%172W / 30L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$404per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$81
other 16% −$131
sports 9% −$36
world 8% −$742
economics 7% −$6
politics 3% +$1,510
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 10 -9.7% -18.3% 90% 0% -9.5%
all 202 +5.6% -4.4% 85% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 7% -9.0%
10% -13.6% 6% -17.7%
15% -21.9% 5% -25.6%
20% -29.6% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$42 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$514
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses172 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)202 / 204
History coverage631d
Avg bet$404
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 23 $70 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 23 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? May 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 06 $110 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 06 $110 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 06 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 March 16-22? Mar 27 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 17? Mar 20 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $2,004 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 11? Mar 13 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 09 $100 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 09 $2,750 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 22? Feb 24 $1,150 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 22? Feb 24 $1,500 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 17? Feb 20 $2,640 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $2,640 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 11? Feb 15 $2,640 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 9? Feb 09 $2,640 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 6? Feb 06 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 6 Feb 06 $2,520 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 4? Feb 05 $2,636 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on February 2? Feb 03 $2,630 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 31 Feb 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in January? Feb 01 $1,300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 31? Feb 01 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 30? Jan 30 $805 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $2,000 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $1,070 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $1,731 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $1,730 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on January 28? Jan 28 $1,050 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11? Jan 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 08 $40 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 8-14? Jan 08 $60 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 December 1-7? Dec 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.70 December 1-7? Dec 09 $20 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 1-7? Dec 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 03 $26 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? Dec 03 $32 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 03 $40 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 03 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? Nov 26 $32 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on November 4? Nov 24 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $80 48d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $70 48d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? BUY No 100¢ $70 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 56d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $110 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $110 77d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 87d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 March 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 March 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,000 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $2,004 101d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 105d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $100 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $100 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $749 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2,650 118d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,150 122d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,500 122d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,640 126d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 15? BUY No 100¢ $2,640 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 11? BUY No 100¢ $2,640 133d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 9? BUY No 100¢ $2,640 135d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $118 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 6 BUY No 100¢ $2,520 137d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $2,636 140d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on February 2? BUY No 100¢ $2,630 141d
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? BUY No 99¢ $100 141d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $100 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.11 · official $150.11 (match) · 483 history records