Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:32:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ef5…fc37 sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,470 (-8%) realized −$5,483 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,311per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$707est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3,178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,343
7 days+$2,062
14 days−$10,778
30 days−$7,833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$253
other 26% −$5,509
crypto 4% −$2,400
world 0% −$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -14.3% -22.5% 48% 43% +2.9%
≤30d 50 -23.4% -30.7% 40% 38% -20.3%
≤90d 50 -23.4% -30.7% 40% 38% -20.3%
all 50 -23.4% -30.7% 40% 38% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.7% 38% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -37.4% 38% -27.9%
15% -43.4% 38% -34.9%
20% -49.0% 36% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,694) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -34% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,369 vs −$1,174 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$3,178
Realized−$5,483
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$707
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage28d
Avg bet$1,311
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Ecuador 63¢ 64¢ $1,273 $1,303 +$30 (+2%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Curaçao 58¢ 57¢ $1,054 $1,045 −$9 (-1%)
Germany leading at halftime? No 53¢ 52¢ $838 $830 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $36 +$37 +101%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $101 −$100 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,450 +$1,492 +103%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,332 −$1,316 -99%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $81 −$81 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $672 +$829 +123%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,357 +$1,482 +109%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $123 −$120 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $85 −$84 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $694 −$684 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $772 −$760 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $674 +$655 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $736 +$383 +52%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $112 −$10 -9%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $943 +$747 +79%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $608 −$599 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $86 −$86 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $949 +$676 +71%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $648 −$504 -78%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $915 −$898 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,497 +$929 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,261 +$28 +2%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,156 +$4,549 +109%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,723 −$1,694 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,656 +$2,219 +134%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,628 +$2,172 +83%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,452 −$1,427 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4,944 −$4,876 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,761 −$1,735 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,728 +$1,817 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,927 −$1,896 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,983 −$1,953 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5,309 +$3,648 +69%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 14 $850 −$850 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 14 $1,106 −$1,106 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-07? Jun 14 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,276 −$1,276 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,042 −$2,042 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1,911 −$1,911 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $1,325 −$1,325 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $4,804 −$4,804 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,040 +$1,791 +172%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $3,138 +$2,535 +81%
UD Las Palmas to score first vs. Málaga CF? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1,199 +$1,276 +106%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $771 −$762 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $70 +$68 +97%
Will Russia win on 2026-05-28? Jun 02 $163 −$163 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $850 23m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $1,067 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 63¢ $1,287 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 47¢ $101 17h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 100¢ $2,942 17h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $36 17h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 49¢ $733 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 60¢ $167 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 60¢ $1,165 25h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 48¢ $717 26h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $53 36h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $27 36h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 36h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $1,501 43h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,839 44h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $688 47h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $117 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $672 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $669 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $85 2d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $694 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $772 3d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $674 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,119 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $197 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $1,689 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $370 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $303 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,177.69 · official $3,177.69 (match) · 344 history records