Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:10:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ef7…c492 world 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1
other 23% $0
crypto 20% $0
tech 16% +$3
sports 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 2 +0.6% -8.9% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 20 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 15% -9.5%
all 20 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 15% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 15% -9.5%
10% -16.0% 5% -18.2%
15% -24.1% 5% -26.1%
20% -31.6% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage141d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $26 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? May 21 $2 $0 +9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? May 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 17 $24 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 15 $24 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $5 $0 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Apr 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 27 $4 $0 +3%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Apr 27 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 31? Mar 30 $2 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Mar 30 $2 $0 +20%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 30 $3 $0 +3%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 30 $3 $0 +5%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on January 30? Mar 30 $2 +$2 +79%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 30 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $26 2h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $26 15d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 15d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $26 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $24 31d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 31d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $24 33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $24 33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $24 35d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 94¢ $24 35d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 93¢ $24 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $8 53d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 53d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 19¢ $4 53d
Suns vs. Grizzlies BUY Suns 87¢ $5 81d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 81d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 92¢ $5 81d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $4 132d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY No 97¢ $3 132d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 95¢ $3 132d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 140d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 140d
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 140d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In BUY Aurora Gaming 83¢ $2 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 140d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on January 30? BUY Down 56¢ $2 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.13 · official $50.13 (match) · 42 history records