Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:39:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ef8…faec politics 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 726d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% +$3
other 6% −$4
world 4% −$4
culture 1% +$2
sports 1% +$9
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -31.5% -38.0% 67% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 3 -31.5% -38.0% 67% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 5 +49.9% +35.6% 60% 20% -8.7%
all 22 +6.6% -3.5% 64% 23% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 23% -9.5%
10% -12.8% 23% -18.2%
15% -21.2% 23% -26.1%
20% -28.9% 18% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

726d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage726d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 19 $704 +$1 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $900 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 03 $6 +$21 +344%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Jan 12 $4 +$2 +39%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $45 −$6 -12%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Sep 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Feb 25 $9 $0 +3%
Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2024? Dec 28 $11 $0 +3%
Will Travis Hunter win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 05 $100 −$12 -12%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Dec 02 $0 $0 +82%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $7 +$7 +98%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? Oct 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Fed rate cut by September 18? Oct 08 $0 $0 +3%
Spain vs. Germany - Who will advance? Sep 07 $11 +$9 +85%
Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? Jul 04 $200 +$6 +3%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30, 2024? Jul 04 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 89¢ $706 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $704 6d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $5 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $15 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $7 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $14 76d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $886 76d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 158d
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 269d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $39 269d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $45 269d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 269d
Iran Nuke in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $52 269d
Iran Nuke in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $50 356d
Will Travis Hunter win the Heisman Trophy? SELL Yes 85¢ $88 561d
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2024? BUY Yes 97¢ $11 564d
Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 564d
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 564d
Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 564d
Will Travis Hunter win the Heisman Trophy? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 564d
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? BUY Yes 55¢ $0 619d
Fed rate cut by September 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $0 648d
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 650d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 650d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 650d
Spain vs. Germany - Who will advance? BUY Spain 54¢ $11 714d
Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? SELL Yes 99¢ $206 714d
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30, 2024? BUY No 99¢ $5 726d
Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 726d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.85 · official $4.85 (match) · 46 history records