trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -31.5% | -38.0% | 67% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -31.5% | -38.0% | 67% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +49.9% | +35.6% | 60% | 20% | -8.7% |
| all | 22 | +6.6% | -3.5% | 64% | 23% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.5% | 23% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -12.8% | 23% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -21.2% | 23% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -28.9% | 18% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 83¢ | 80¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Jun 19 | $704 | +$1 | +0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? | Jun 15 | $15 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 04 | $900 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Apr 03 | $6 | +$21 | +344% |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Jan 12 | $4 | +$2 | +39% |
| Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Sep 23 | $45 | −$6 | -12% |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 23 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Iran Nuke in 2025? | Sep 23 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | Jun 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | Feb 25 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? | Feb 25 | $9 | $0 | +3% |
| Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Dec 28 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2024? | Dec 28 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Travis Hunter win the Heisman Trophy? | Dec 05 | $100 | −$12 | -12% |
| Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Dec 02 | $0 | $0 | +82% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Dec 02 | $7 | +$7 | +98% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Oct 08 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Fed rate cut by September 18? | Oct 08 | $0 | $0 | +3% |
| Spain vs. Germany - Who will advance? | Sep 07 | $11 | +$9 | +85% |
| Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Jul 04 | $200 | +$6 | +3% |
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30, 2024? | Jul 04 | $5 | $0 | +1% |