Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6E 0x6ef9…afac crypto 400 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$29,647 (+53%) realized +$29,556 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate39%156W / 239L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 147d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$6,484
world 1% +$217
finance 0% −$46
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -34.0% -40.3% 12% 12% -68.7%
≤30d 65 +20.7% +9.2% 28% 28% +33.8%
≤90d 297 +0.8% -8.8% 42% 25% -6.1%
all 395 +5.9% -4.1% 39% 26% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 26% -0.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 26% -10.1%
15% -21.7% 25% -18.8%
20% -29.4% 24% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$251 vs −$136 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$618
Realized+$29,556
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses156 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)395 / 400
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$141
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $162 $235 +$72 (+45%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $50 $94 +$44 (+89%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 5¢ 4¢ $69 $49 −$20 (-29%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? No 0¢ 0¢ $46 $41 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $80 +$204 +257%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $215 −$202 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 16 $348 −$74 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $71 −$63 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $88 −$85 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $177 −$170 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $273 −$262 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $31 −$29 -94%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $30 +$154 +520%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $207 −$200 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $233 −$225 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $45 −$42 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $291 −$277 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $775 −$738 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $544 −$308 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $138 −$130 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $20 +$78 +390%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $81 −$76 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $193 −$69 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $70 +$30 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $94 −$86 -92%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $36 −$35 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $245 −$233 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $957 −$909 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $52 +$70 +134%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $458 −$444 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $160 −$10 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $190 −$188 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $61 −$57 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $188 +$414 +220%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $487 +$2,726 +560%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $309 +$1,305 +422%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $32 +$117 +364%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $145 +$131 +91%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $318 −$305 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $168 +$107 +64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $1,141 +$2,787 +244%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $831 +$901 +108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $131 +$1,272 +971%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 03 $598 +$327 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $178 +$2,181 +1225%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $165 −$157 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $70 −$65 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $198 −$194 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 5¢ $68 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 5¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 5¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $49 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $177 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $85 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $28 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.98 · official $617.98 (match) · 3500 history records