Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6efa…1a9b other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$525 (+31%) realized +$521 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$490
sports 27% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +49.6% +35.4% 75% 75% +22.4%
≤30d 16 +49.6% +35.4% 75% 75% +22.4%
≤90d 16 +49.6% +35.4% 75% 75% +22.4%
all 16 +49.6% +35.4% 75% 75% +22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.4% 75% +22.4%
10% +22.4% 69% +10.7%
15% +10.6% 44% +0.0%
20% -0.2% 25% -9.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +95% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$32 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.99 per $1 lost it wins $4.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$521
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 80¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 36¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$65 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$148 +146%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$87 -86%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 +$31 +31%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$67 +650%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $101 +$33 +32%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$48 +48%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 6h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 11h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 24h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $101 25h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 31h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $10 31h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $225 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 40h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 45h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.16 · official $204.16 (match) · 31 history records