Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.0
score
6E 0x6efe…8b8e crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 524d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist
Total PnL +$7,377 (+24%) realized +$8,276 · open −$899
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%40W / 39L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,625
7 days+$2,625
14 days+$2,625
30 days+$3,449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$3,025
crypto 26% +$1,372
politics 24% +$1,705
sports 8% −$576
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.0% -5.0% 45% 45% +7.9%
≤30d 36 +25.2% +13.3% 56% 56% +9.1%
≤90d 58 +8.8% -1.6% 50% 47% +5.4%
all 79 +39.3% +26.0% 51% 47% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.0% 47% +10.5%
10% +14.0% 44% -0.1%
15% +3.0% 42% -9.7%
20% -7.1% 37% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$106 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$8,276
Unrealized−$899
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses40 / 39
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage524d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Power Rangers 28¢ 0¢ $900 $2 −$899 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $424 −$395 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $104 +$101 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $477 −$6 -1%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $131 +$203 +155%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $206 +$293 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $315 −$90 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $208 +$293 +141%
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 Jun 27 $12,151 +$2,414 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $67 +$65 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $104 +$112 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $104 +$129 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 07 $95 −$91 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 04 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $47 +$42 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 04 $334 −$323 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 04 $230 +$152 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 04 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 04 $127 +$161 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 04 $418 +$309 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 04 $105 +$246 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 04 $102 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 04 $205 +$148 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 04 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$114 +432%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 03 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 03 $213 +$285 +134%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $175 +$39 +22%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win - Game 1 Winner May 08 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 01 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 01 $54 +$109 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 01 $103 +$61 +60%
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $50 −$6 -12%
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $50 +$1 +2%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be betwe Apr 27 $410 −$408 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 27 $195 +$77 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $45 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 40¢ $471 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $499 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 26¢ $66 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 25¢ $63 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 28¢ $73 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 30¢ $230 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 27¢ $69 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 29¢ $74 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 28¢ $344 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 39¢ $39 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 39¢ $42 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 39¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 39¢ $6 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 43¢ $109 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 40¢ $102 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 39¢ $48 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 38¢ $97 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 39¢ $99 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 39¢ $139 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.60 · official $1.60 (match) · 466 history records