Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f04…b812 crypto 124 markets active 6h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$384 (-15%) realized −$384 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%64W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$389
7 days−$379
14 days−$425
30 days−$470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$463
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -0.3% -9.8% 58% 49% -33.7%
≤30d 122 -10.7% -19.2% 52% 45% -29.9%
≤90d 124 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 45% -29.5%
all 124 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 45% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 45% -29.5%
10% -26.0% 34% -36.3%
15% -33.2% 23% -42.4%
20% -39.7% 16% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$384
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses64 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage36d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$6 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$7 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$31 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $157 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $116 +$37 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $115 +$41 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $220 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $72 +$16 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $82 −$77 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $335 −$200 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $13 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$9 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $56 −$29 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $38 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$4 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records