Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f06…abe1 sports 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$247 (-11%) realized −$214 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%24W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$91
14 days−$176
30 days−$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$372
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -21.9% -29.3% 34% 34% -19.0%
≤30d 71 -26.5% -33.5% 34% 34% -26.1%
≤90d 71 -26.5% -33.5% 34% 34% -26.1%
all 71 -26.5% -33.5% 34% 34% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 34% -26.1%
10% -39.9% 31% -33.2%
15% -45.7% 28% -39.6%
20% -51.0% 25% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$23 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$214
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses24 / 47
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage27d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 34¢ 20¢ $84 $51 −$33 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Samuel (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 21 $49 +$19 +39%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $113 −$10 -9%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $67 +$48 +72%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $41 +$62 +151%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $61 −$60 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $50 +$22 +44%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Marc-Andrea H Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $23 +$44 +194%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $31 +$35 +113%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $64 −$64 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $10 +$4 +39%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $33 −$33 -98%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $41 +$70 +171%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $19 +$53 +272%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $53 +$59 +112%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $11 +$31 +279%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $98 −$4 -4%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $51 +$40 +79%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $67 +$36 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 16¢ $21 26m
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 52¢ $65 34m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 12¢ $10 52m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel SELL Matteo Arnaldi 38¢ $54 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel SELL Matteo Arnaldi 37¢ $52 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Matteo Arnaldi 17¢ $17 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Matteo Arnaldi 36¢ $31 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk SELL Aleksandar Vukic 93¢ $14 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk SELL Aleksandar Vukic 95¢ $79 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk SELL Aleksandar Vukic 54¢ $20 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk BUY Aleksandar Vukic 31¢ $16 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk BUY Aleksandar Vukic 58¢ $51 5h
Set Handicap: Samuel (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) BUY Arnaldi 71¢ $49 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Matteo Arnaldi 51¢ $55 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 35¢ $11 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 41¢ $30 21h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 7¢ $10 22h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 33¢ $51 23h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 6¢ $10 23h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 64¢ $16 25h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Marc-Andrea H BUY Marc-Andrea Huesler 13¢ $21 26h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 20¢ $10 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys BUY Quentin Halys 23¢ $20 29h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 69¢ $50 29h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 36¢ $21 44h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 21¢ $23 45h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 12¢ $21 46h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 27¢ $10 47h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 9¢ $5 47h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 17¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.86 · official $22.33 · 149 history records