Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:22:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f07…0f8e sports 178 markets active 5d ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%18W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$3
politics 26% −$2
other 22% $0
crypto 8% −$2
economics 5% −$1
culture 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 178 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses18 / 160
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage159d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $41 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $147 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $282 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $92 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 17 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 15 $40 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $302 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 10 $47 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 09 $143 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 08 $162 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $164 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $290 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 06 $45 $0 +1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 06 $44 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 28 $48 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 28 $217 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 27 $99 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 27 $129 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 27 $121 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 26 $102 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $106 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $41 4d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $40 16d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $40 16d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $38 31d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $39 31d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $46 91d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $46 91d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 96¢ $42 91d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $42 91d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $48 91d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $48 91d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 91d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 92d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $50 92d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $50 92d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $42 92d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $42 92d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 92d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $45 92d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $44 92d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $44 92d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $39 92d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $40 93d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $39 93d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 93d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $43 93d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 93d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $48 93d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $48 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 708 history records