Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f0b…8202 weather 737 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$396 (-7%) realized −$403 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%289W / 433L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$47
14 days+$30
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$488
sports 5% −$10
other 4% +$4
politics 1% +$1
world 1% +$41
tech 1% +$5
culture 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 64% +10.4%
≤30d 244 +1.3% -8.3% 44% 44% -8.4%
≤90d 722 -10.3% -18.9% 40% 38% -16.8%
all 722 -10.3% -18.9% 40% 38% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 38% -16.8%
10% -26.6% 37% -24.8%
15% -33.7% 36% -32.0%
20% -40.2% 34% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$403
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses289 / 433
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)722 / 737
History coverage62d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 722 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Petr Nesterov Petr Nesterov 88¢ 100¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+14%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 95¢ 94¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Anastasia Zakharova Tatjana Maria 84¢ 90¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Enrico Dalla Valle Andres Santamarta 88¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 82¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? No 76¢ 74¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Max Alcala Gurri Max Alcala Gurri 74¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 71¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 416 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Gdansk: Chloe Paquet vs Amy Sucha Jun 24 $9 +$1 +16%
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Jun 24 $10 −$2 -14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 +$2 +13%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 +$4 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $17 −$9 -54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 +$14 +54%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 +$4 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $56 +$40 +72%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$6 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$8 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$9 +131%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$9 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$9 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 10 $7 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$10 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$6 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$10 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 09 $8 +$10 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$7 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$8 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$10 +126%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 9? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 08 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Jun 08 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 +$8 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 +$9 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 +$7 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Andres Santamarta 88¢ $9 7m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Tatjana Maria 88¢ $9 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Tatjana Maria 80¢ $8 20m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 94¢ $19 22m
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Petr Nesterov BUY Petr Nesterov 93¢ $10 41m
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro SELL Francesco Passaro 57¢ $6 42m
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 74¢ $7 48m
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 65¢ $6 54m
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Petr Nesterov BUY Petr Nesterov 86¢ $10 56m
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro SELL Niels McDonald 34¢ $3 58m
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro BUY Niels McDonald 39¢ $4 1h
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Petr Nesterov BUY Petr Nesterov 85¢ $9 1h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $34 1h
ITF Gdansk: Chloe Paquet vs Amy Sucha BUY Chloe Paquet 86¢ $9 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 12h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 15h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $9 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 15h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $9 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 76¢ $8 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 28h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $6 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.30 · official $186.65 (match) · 1236 history records