Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6F 0x6f0c…fef4 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$10
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 57% -9.1%
≤30d 8 -13.7% -22.0% 75% 50% -9.1%
≤90d 8 -13.7% -22.0% 75% 50% -9.1%
all 8 -13.7% -22.0% 75% 50% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 50% -9.1%
10% -29.4% 12% -17.8%
15% -36.2% 0% -25.7%
20% -42.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$126 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage7d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Over 88¢ 88¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $300 +$21 +7%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $302 +$50 +16%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $250 +$54 +22%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $250 −$249 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $251 +$68 +27%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $250 +$18 +7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $450 +$48 +11%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $499 −$4 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $151 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $151 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 95¢ $81 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 95¢ $81 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 94¢ $160 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $300 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $175 23h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 91¢ $177 23h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $302 23h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $304 25h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $250 26h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $250 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $320 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $137 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $251 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 96¢ $131 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $250 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $498 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $450 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $326 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 51¢ $164 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $499 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.09 · official $299.87 (match) · 22 history records