Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6F 0x6f10…1cee crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$72 (+19%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$5
14 days+$26
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$4
sports 16% +$12
other 14% +$48
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +23.4% +11.6% 56% 56% +2.3%
≤30d 14 +36.5% +23.5% 64% 64% +27.6%
≤90d 14 +36.5% +23.5% 64% 64% +27.6%
all 44 +17.7% +6.4% 52% 50% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 50% +8.0%
10% -3.7% 45% -2.3%
15% -13.0% 43% -11.7%
20% -21.6% 39% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage211d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 +$9 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $8 +$7 +88%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $9 −$9 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $13 +$17 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 13 $25 −$15 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 13 $13 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 13 $7 +$6 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 13 $3 +$5 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 09 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 09 $6 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 02 $14 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 07 $7 +$25 +338%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 06 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Solana dip to $90 in January? Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 29 $13 +$34 +252%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $50 +$8 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 12 $28 +$6 +20%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 11 $18 +$10 +54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? Nov 18 $8 +$12 +150%
Will Microsoft dip to $398 in November? Nov 18 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Microsoft dip to $435 in November? Nov 18 $1 $0 +8%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 18 $2 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $7 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 24h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 36h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 9d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Switzerland 52¢ $9 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $6 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $21 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $6 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.01 · official $22.01 (match) · 98 history records