Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f14…e37f other 259 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$20
14 days−$32
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$44
sports 23% −$18
culture 7% −$8
politics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$6
economics 5% −$5
world 5% −$5
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)259 / 259
History coverage138d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 259 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $233 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $193 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $606 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $209 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $372 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $324 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $587 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $369 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $299 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $147 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $254 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $599 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $193 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $363 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $382 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $381 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $249 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $439 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $325 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $412 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $349 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $150 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $285 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $148 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $64 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $501 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 14m
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 3h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 5h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 9h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 10h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 12h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 13h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 18h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 19h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 28h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 29h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 35h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 40h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 42h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 47h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $33 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $24 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1435 history records