Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6F 0x6f17…cfd4 crypto 1422 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (210 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$539 (-16%) realized −$537 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate68%952W / 457L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day210.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$131
14 days−$148
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$89
sports 14% −$67
other 3% −$12
weather 2% +$22
world 0% −$3
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (210 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 712 -5.1% -14.1% 55% 36% -15.1%
≤30d 1409 -1.0% -10.4% 68% 28% -13.6%
≤90d 1409 -1.0% -10.4% 68% 28% -13.6%
all 1409 -1.0% -10.4% 68% 28% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover210.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 28% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 23% -21.9%
15% -26.8% 19% -29.4%
20% -34.0% 15% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$537
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses952 / 457
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1409 / 1422
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day210.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1409 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Under 52¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will Lucas Herbert finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 92¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tom Kim finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 48¢ 41¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 61¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Sepp Straka finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 92¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Sung-Jae Im finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 45¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) DR Congo 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Tom Kim finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 90¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -43%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +115%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +112%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -27%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $3 −$1 -21%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 9m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 26¢ $1 15m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 20¢ $1 17m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 18m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 47¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $22 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 38m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 46m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 46m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 46m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 94¢ $1 46m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 46m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 23¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 18¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 17¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 28¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 28¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 26¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 20¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 89¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.56 · official $7.64 · 3500 history records