Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f18…d6ca sports 920 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,531 (-12%) realized −$1,529 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%448W / 467L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$408
14 days−$697
30 days−$640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,356
other 10% −$145
crypto 4% −$143
culture 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -12.4% -20.7% 52% 52% -27.2%
≤30d 357 -17.9% -25.7% 50% 50% -19.7%
≤90d 915 -12.9% -21.2% 49% 48% -21.7%
all 915 -12.9% -21.2% 49% 48% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 48% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 44% -29.2%
15% -35.6% 37% -36.1%
20% -41.9% 30% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$1,529
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses448 / 467
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions5
Markets (closed)915 / 920
History coverage54d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 915 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners Under 58¢ 55¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals No 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$8 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$8 +76%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $7 +$3 +47%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $16 +$24 +145%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals Jun 17 $4 +$10 +216%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +42%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +118%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$13 +52%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $25 +$6 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $35 +$6 +16%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 59¢ $5 5m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 5m
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $10 6m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 6m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 6m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 58¢ $10 6m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $10 7m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 7m
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 2h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 56¢ $10 2h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals SELL No 0¢ $0 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $7 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $15 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 17h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $10 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 20h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 20h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $17 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.33 · official $68.33 (match) · 2054 history records