Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6F 0x6f18…d8f5 sports 243 markets active 2d ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$663 (+13%) realized +$607 · open +$56
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%133W / 90L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$213
14 days+$318
30 days+$614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$584
other 12% +$76
crypto 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +43.4% +29.8% 56% 56% +3.4%
≤30d 208 +16.9% +5.7% 61% 61% +3.3%
≤90d 223 +13.8% +2.9% 60% 60% +2.3%
all 223 +13.8% +2.9% 60% 60% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 60% +2.3%
10% -6.9% 60% -7.5%
15% -15.9% 57% -16.4%
20% -24.2% 45% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized+$607
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses133 / 90
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions18
Markets (closed)223 / 243
History coverage32d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 93¢ $102 $137 +$35 (+34%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-4%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 69¢ $12 $21 +$9 (+74%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Yes 21¢ 46¢ $8 $18 +$10 (+121%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $13 +$2 (+22%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+44%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 +$10 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 +$12 +48%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $55 +$45 +82%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 15 $8 +$17 +203%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $73 +$62 +84%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $21 +$29 +138%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $121 −$120 -100%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $130 −$129 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $18 +$5 +27%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $37 +$12 +32%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $43 −$42 -100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $52 +$22 +43%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $58 +$47 +80%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$28 -90%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $183 +$221 +121%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $154 +$117 +76%
Will Jalen Brunson score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals Jun 14 $3 +$22 +733%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $17 +$8 +45%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $44 +$21 +48%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 +$32 +186%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $25 +$12 +48%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$48 +1900%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $10 +$10 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $14 +$11 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $31 +$19 +61%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $10 +$5 +49%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 11 $17 +$8 +48%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $36 +$36 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 42h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 50¢ $23 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 50¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $40 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $13 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 54¢ $19 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $16 2d
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Over 15¢ $8 2d
O/U 3.5 Rounds BUY Over 33¢ $8 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 42¢ $21 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 35¢ $9 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 48¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 55¢ $6 2d
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $14 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 60¢ $3 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 60¢ $2 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 60¢ $4 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 69¢ $7 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $11 2d
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $20 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $49 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $6 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 75¢ $12 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 75¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.12 · official $414.13 (match) · 659 history records