Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f19…b9ff sports 700 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,648 (-2%) realized −$2,485 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%415W / 245L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$1,043est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$9,116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,473
7 days+$3,589
14 days−$2,377
30 days+$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$191
other 42% −$884
politics 1% −$128
world 0% +$68
crypto 0% −$5
culture 0% −$216
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +14.6% +3.7% 63% 49% +16.0%
≤30d 186 +5.3% -4.7% 66% 44% -8.9%
≤90d 660 +1.9% -7.8% 63% 44% -10.0%
all 660 +1.9% -7.8% 63% 44% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 44% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 33% -18.6%
15% -24.7% 27% -26.5%
20% -32.0% 22% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$163 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$9,116
Realized−$2,485
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses415 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$1,043
Open positions40
Markets (closed)660 / 700
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$220
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 660 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the match end in a draw? No 90¢ 90¢ $3,204 $3,177 −$27 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,610 $1,375 −$235 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,101 $1,285 +$184 (+17%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 80¢ $709 $705 −$4 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $400 $395 −$5 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $290 $332 +$42 (+15%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $153 $232 +$79 (+52%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? No 69¢ 55¢ $235 $186 −$49 (-21%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 36¢ $165 $167 +$2 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $147 $145 −$3 (-2%)
Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $118 $127 +$9 (+7%)
Spread: OC Safi (-2.5) RS Berkane 98¢ 96¢ $125 $122 −$3 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 87¢ 92¢ $86 $91 +$4 (+5%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for San Jose Earthquakes next? No 97¢ 97¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? No 92¢ 90¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $73 $74 +$0 (+1%)
São Bernardo FC vs. EC Juventude: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 95¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? No 16¢ 10¢ $80 $46 −$34 (-42%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 13¢ 14¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+4%)
Spread: AA Ponte Preta (-2.5) Grêmio Novorizontino 96¢ 96¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Olympic Dcheira (-2.5) AS FAR 95¢ 96¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 3¢ 6¢ $13 $31 +$18 (+141%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 2.5 Under 96¢ 97¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 90¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-5%)
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: Olympic Dcheira O/U 2.5 Under 95¢ 96¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 17 $91 +$18 +20%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 17 $16 +$6 +38%
RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $151 +$53 +35%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $231 +$285 +124%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $214 +$296 +138%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Difaâ Hassani El Jadida Jun 17 $22 +$2 +8%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Difaâ Hassani El Jadida Jun 17 $26 +$1 +5%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $14 +$1 +7%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $1,101 +$75 +7%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $871 +$232 +27%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $122 +$231 +188%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,684 +$252 +15%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $17 +$23 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $675 +$42 +6%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $243 +$364 +150%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +509%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $681 +$619 +91%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,345 +$1,155 +86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $599 +$501 +84%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 +$2 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,479 +$1,685 +114%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026? Jun 15 $16 +$24 +148%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 15 $58 +$12 +21%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $4 +$2 +39%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $260 −$260 -100%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Spread: CD La Serena (-2.5) Jun 13 $7 $0 +6%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $329 +$318 +97%
Will FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès end in a draw? Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $208 −$208 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $877 −$781 -89%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 11 $172 −$172 -100%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $220 −$220 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $240 −$240 -100%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 10 $58 +$3 +5%
Spread: San Marino (-1.5) Jun 09 $31 +$1 +5%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $117 +$37 +32%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Palestine win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the match end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $215 28m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $711 37m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $2 44m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $237 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $147 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $104 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 86¢ $109 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 64¢ $21 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 2h
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $24 2h
Spread: OC Safi (-2.5) BUY RS Berkane 98¢ $126 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $4 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $136 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $6 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $3 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $3 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $17 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $41 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $28 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $9 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $19 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $14 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $6 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $28 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 7h
Will the match end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $270 10h
Will the match end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $176 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,115.50 · official $9,113.59 (match) · 3500 history records