Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f1b…0f30 crypto 1364 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate72%979W / 384L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$17
weather 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -0.4% -9.9% 78% 35% -4.9%
≤30d 341 -2.9% -12.2% 80% 30% -4.3%
≤90d 904 -14.5% -22.6% 68% 18% -12.0%
all 1363 -2.9% -12.2% 72% 31% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 31% -8.3%
10% -20.6% 20% -17.1%
15% -28.3% 12% -25.1%
20% -35.3% 6% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses979 / 384
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1363 / 1364
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Up 80¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$4 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.84 · official $1.79 (match) · 3500 history records