Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6f1b…2ace crypto 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 625d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate94%123W / 8L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$15
politics 27% +$18
other 1% +$11
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% +$2
finance 0% +$1
world 0% −$2
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 29 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 3% -9.4%
all 131 +4.5% -5.4% 94% 20% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 20% -9.3%
10% -14.5% 6% -17.9%
15% -22.7% 4% -25.9%
20% -30.3% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 36% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.63 per $1 lost it wins $3.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

625d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses123 / 8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)131 / 135
History coverage625d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $108 $108 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 94¢ 95¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $109 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 20 $4 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 9? Jun 16 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 29 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on May 22? May 23 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 17 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 08 $191 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30? May 04 $4 +$1 +14%
Will France strike Iran by April 30? May 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 30? May 04 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 13 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $185 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +1%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 31? Apr 01 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 25? Mar 26 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? Mar 22 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $192 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? Mar 14 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 11 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 06 $187 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Mar 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 1? Mar 03 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 23 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 20? Feb 21 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 17? Feb 19 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 14? Feb 15 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 9? Feb 09 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 7 Feb 08 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on February 3? Feb 05 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $170 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 01 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $108 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $109 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $4 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $4 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $95 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $96 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $171 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $178 31d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $4 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $5 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $185 44d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $7 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $2 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $191 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $171 54d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 62d
Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30? BUY No 87¢ $4 62d
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $189 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $185 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $184 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $186 75d
Will France strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $185 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $189 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $179 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $181 87d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $178 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.85 · official $119.85 (match) · 296 history records