Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f1f…f56e politics 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$376 (-0%) realized −$376 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%22W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,549per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$30
14 days−$43
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$119
other 42% +$38
sports 9% −$319
economics 2% −$8
world 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 -1.5% -10.9% 10% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 90 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 4% -9.6%
all 150 -2.5% -11.8% 15% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 11% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 11% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 9% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,645) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$12 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$376
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses22 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,549
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $228 $228 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $3,015 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $366 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $3,412 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,503 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 19 $3,103 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3,257 −$4 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $2,645 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,555 −$5 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $3,375 −$5 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,392 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,597 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,099 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $4,183 −$4 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,549 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,199 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $6,767 −$7 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $56 +$39 +70%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,685 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,623 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 02 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $475 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $581 +$1 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $5,277 −$6 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $6,588 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,870 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 26 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,063 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 25 $64 +$49 +76%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,679 −$3 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $84 +$42 +50%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $6,970 −$8 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $53 +$53 +101%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $1,658 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,357 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $2,783 −$4 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $2,869 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $349 59m
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $350 2h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $366 4h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $366 5h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $485 24h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $485 26h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $283 29h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $283 31h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $374 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $374 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $339 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $340 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $314 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $315 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $253 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $266 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $266 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $205 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $206 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,260 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,262 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,173 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,175 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,244 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,246 9d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,351 11d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,353 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,367 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,369 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.26 · official $228.26 (match) · 514 history records