Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f22…d210 crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$170 (-46%) realized −$176 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$166
crypto 30% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -18.1% -25.9% 38% 31% -70.6%
≤30d 16 -18.1% -25.9% 38% 31% -70.6%
≤90d 16 -18.1% -25.9% 38% 31% -70.6%
all 16 -18.1% -25.9% 38% 31% -70.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 31% -70.6%
10% -33.0% 12% -73.4%
15% -39.5% 12% -76.0%
20% -45.4% 12% -78.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$22 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$176
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $81 $87 +$6 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$28 +523%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $175 −$172 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 0¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $71 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.45 · official $87.45 (match) · 28 history records