Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f22…e113 weather 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$366 (-3%) realized −$368 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate80%136W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$254
14 days−$285
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 61% −$289
sports 25% −$47
other 5% +$29
world 3% −$12
crypto 3% −$95
politics 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -18.3% -26.1% 65% 20% -29.2%
≤30d 86 -6.1% -15.1% 80% 19% -15.6%
≤90d 171 -5.9% -14.9% 80% 17% -13.3%
all 171 -5.9% -14.9% 80% 17% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 17% -13.3%
10% -23.0% 1% -21.6%
15% -30.5% 1% -29.1%
20% -37.3% 1% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$30 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$368
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses136 / 35
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage43d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? No 82¢ 86¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $53 −$14 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 +7%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? Jun 17 $3 $0 +7%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $79 +$14 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $73 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $65 +$8 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 +$8 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $201 −$91 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $100 −$23 -23%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $229 +$25 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$11 +11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $53 +$5 +9%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $55 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $53 −$8 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $47 −$6 -12%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Nigeria? Jun 10 $53 +$3 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $49 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $44 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $41 +$2 +6%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $36 +$5 +14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $33 +$3 +10%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $31 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $68 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $54 +$4 +6%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $50 +$4 +7%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $50 +$4 +8%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $41 +$5 +12%
Tochigi SC vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $44 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $39 +$5 +12%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 06 $36 +$3 +8%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $33 +$3 +10%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $59 −$31 -52%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $57 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 67¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $53 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $3 30h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $3 30h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 91¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $3 31h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $3 32h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 97¢ $3 33h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 96¢ $2 34h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 35h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $90 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $92 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $79 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $78 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $73 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $74 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $65 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $65 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $57 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 88¢ $101 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 99¢ $106 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 94¢ $100 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.66 · official $40.66 (match) · 364 history records