Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6F 0x6f23…45c7 sports 228 markets active 5d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$187 (+2%) realized +$187 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate63%141W / 84L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$137
other 2% +$32
crypto 1% −$9
world 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +35.2% +22.3% 50% 50% +36.0%
≤30d 14 +27.1% +15.0% 64% 64% +35.8%
≤90d 225 -1.4% -10.8% 63% 39% -7.7%
all 225 -1.4% -10.8% 63% 39% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 39% -7.7%
10% -19.3% 29% -16.6%
15% -27.1% 27% -24.6%
20% -34.3% 22% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses141 / 84
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)225 / 228
History coverage73d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 33¢ 61¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+83%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +80%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 May 27 $1 +$1 +114%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 27 $1 +$1 +76%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 May 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5 May 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $5 +$4 +83%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 May 24 $5 +$4 +86%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 May 23 $5 +$6 +114%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 13.5 May 22 $5 +$3 +57%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 May 21 $5 +$5 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 May 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Dane Sweeny May 08 $2 +$1 +57%
Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5 May 08 $3 +$3 +86%
Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Jie Cui May 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Jiujiang: Hayu Kinoshita vs En-Shuo Liang May 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Jiujiang: Heather Watson vs Xiaodi You May 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sebastian Ofner vs Alex Michelsen May 07 $2 +$1 +59%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Gianluca Cadena May 07 $2 +$1 +55%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Francesco Maestr May 07 $2 +$1 +57%
Istanbul: Xinran Sun vs Mia Ristic May 07 $2 +$1 +46%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marcos Giron vs Marin Cilic May 07 $3 +$2 +64%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tomas Machac May 06 $2 −$2 -99%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 May 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini May 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Zizou Bergs vs Terence Atmane May 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Clara Tauson vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Cagliari: Emilio Nava vs Damir Dzumhur May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Massimo Giunta May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazzaville: Matyas Cerny vs Bor Artnak May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Wuxi: Alastair Gray vs Jie Cui May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Istanbul: Alice Tubello vs Elizara Yaneva May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Jiujiang: Aoi Ito vs Lizette Cabrera May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Francavilla: Alex Barrena vs August Holmgren May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Wuxi: Alex Bolt vs Fajing Sun May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Wuxi: Hayato Matsuoka vs Maximus Jones May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Santos: Mateus Cardoso Alves vs Hernan Casanova May 06 $3 +$2 +55%
Francavilla: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Gustavo Heide May 06 $3 +$1 +47%
Francavilla: Juan Carlos Prado vs Buvaysar Gadamauri May 06 $3 +$2 +73%
Jiujiang: Xinxin Yao vs Haruka Kaji May 06 $3 +$2 +64%
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Mikhail Kukushkin May 06 $3 +$2 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $1 5d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 BUY No 55¢ $2 6d
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $1 21d
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 BUY Yes 53¢ $1 21d
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 46¢ $1 21d
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 48¢ $1 21d
Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 63¢ $1 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 54¢ $5 22d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 63¢ $5 23d
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 BUY Yes 53¢ $5 24d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 46¢ $5 25d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 63¢ $5 26d
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $5 27d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 32d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $2 32d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 32d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $5 35d
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 SELL Over 99¢ $9 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 36d
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 36d
Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Jie Cui BUY Rio Noguchi 60¢ $2 40d
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Dane Sweeny BUY Mark Lajal 63¢ $2 40d
Jiujiang: Hayu Kinoshita vs En-Shuo Liang BUY Hayu Kinoshita 59¢ $2 40d
Jiujiang: Heather Watson vs Xiaodi You BUY Heather Watson 57¢ $2 40d
Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 53¢ $3 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sebastian Ofner vs Alex Michelsen SELL Sebastian Ofner 100¢ $3 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Francesco Maestr SELL Roberto Bautista Agut 100¢ $3 40d
Istanbul: Xinran Sun vs Mia Ristic SELL Mia Ristic 100¢ $3 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.14 · official $4.14 (match) · 495 history records