Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6F 0x6f26…8984 sports 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$245 (+2%) realized +$241 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%105W / 82L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$117
14 days+$117
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$226
other 25% +$55
crypto 10% +$174
world 10% +$139
tech 7% +$30
finance 6% −$17
politics 6% +$66
weather 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +17.7% +6.5% 50% 50% +2.4%
≤30d 7 -32.5% -38.9% 29% 29% -11.6%
≤90d 55 -12.6% -20.9% 53% 45% -7.2%
all 187 -10.6% -19.2% 56% 49% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 49% -7.3%
10% -26.9% 43% -16.2%
15% -34.0% 30% -24.3%
20% -40.4% 21% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$25 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$532
Realized+$241
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses105 / 82
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)187 / 191
History coverage198d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $264 $238 −$26 (-10%)
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $140 $143 +$3 (+2%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $84 $98 +$14 (+17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $52 +$12 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $537 −$24 -5%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 18 $354 +$142 +40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $364 −$21 -6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $55 −$54 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 May 29 $105 +$45 +43%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $121 +$66 +54%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5 May 19 $32 +$18 +54%
Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West V May 13 $60 −$60 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 12 $52 +$48 +92%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $78 +$22 +28%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 06 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 04 $146 +$228 +157%
Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5 May 03 $49 +$14 +29%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score May 02 $34 +$8 +23%
Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 May 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $64 +$21 +32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 29 $30 +$12 +40%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $26 +$8 +32%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $17 +$26 +151%
1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $32 +$8 +27%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Apr 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets Apr 22 $28 +$41 +146%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $17 −$17 -100%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $37 +$33 +89%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 13 $34 +$6 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 12 $108 +$24 +22%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $68 +$32 +47%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 07 $42 −$42 -100%
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 07 $215 +$7 +4%
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 Apr 06 $53 −$53 -100%
AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to Score Apr 05 $50 −$50 -99%
Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Apr 05 $150 +$97 +65%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Angers SCO vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw? Apr 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 05 $65 +$35 +54%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $74 +$7 +9%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5 Apr 04 $24 +$25 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 3? Apr 04 $85 +$15 +18%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 03 $60 +$40 +67%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 30 $210 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 30 $153 +$6 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $140 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 1h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 84¢ $85 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $513 5h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $537 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $496 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $184 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $235 19d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 19d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 45¢ $55 24d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 29¢ $51 24d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $100 27d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $4 27d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 27d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $72 29d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 30d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $188 34d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 34d
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $32 38d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 70¢ $354 43d
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $52 44d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY King Green 78¢ $78 44d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) BUY Brentford FC 53¢ $30 45d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 49d
Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5 BUY No 58¢ $26 52d
Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5 SELL Yes 36¢ $18 52d
Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5 BUY Yes 44¢ $23 52d
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 64¢ $27 52d
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 64¢ $10 52d
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 64¢ $1 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.50 · official $531.50 (match) · 500 history records