Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f29…fa66 politics 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 668d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$18
other 24% −$5
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 90 -8.3% -17.0% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

668d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage668d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $51 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 30 $53 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 08 $106 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will Zach Edey win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Feb 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship? Nov 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the Eastern Conference? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Draymond Green lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dak Prescott win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran peace deal in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will TREMP reach $1b first? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Trump sentenced to prison in NY case before inauguration? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Puka Nacua be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will Davante Adams be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
Will TRUMP reach $1b first? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will RB Leipzig win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will $POPCAT be listed first on Binance? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will another team win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will LSU win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 26 $0 $0 -2%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will USC win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 15h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 18d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 18d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 47d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 47d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 74d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 74d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $53 81d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $53 81d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $53 90d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $53 90d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 96d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 97d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 103d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 103d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $53 106d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $53 107d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $53 108d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $53 109d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 110d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 111d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 100¢ $53 112d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $53 112d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $53 116d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $53 117d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 100¢ $53 118d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $53 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records