Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f2c…e130 other 358 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$249 (-42%) realized −$224 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%185W / 201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day114.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$22
14 days−$38
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$24
crypto 17% −$1
finance 6% +$5
world 6% +$6
politics 5% −$2
tech 3% −$3
economics 2% +$1
sports 1% −$4
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +44.3% +30.5% 42% 42% -20.8%
≤30d 383 +37.3% +24.2% 48% 46% -19.0%
≤90d 386 +37.4% +24.3% 48% 46% -18.9%
all 386 +37.4% +24.3% 48% 46% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.3% 46% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here +12.4% 36% -26.7%
15% +1.6% 28% -33.7%
20% -8.4% 22% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +49% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$224
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses185 / 201
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions42
Markets (closed)386 / 358
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day114.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+150%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-85%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $125B and $150B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-80%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Stripe’s market cap be $140B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 234 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +148%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +1184%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -91%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -89%
Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr Jun 15 $0 $0 +796%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jun 15 $0 $0 -49%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 +651%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump Leave China on May 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +310%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 18? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.42 · official $24.31 (match) · 3500 history records